"What is the acceptance rate?" is the wrong question, because the published rate describes everyone who submitted, including the half who never should have. The right question is: what is the acceptance probability for this paper at this journal? That number cannot be looked up, but it can be estimated, and the estimate tells you where to submit first, what to fix before submitting, and when to stop hoping and move on. This guide gives a practical method for estimating journal acceptance probability before you press submit.
is the range of overall acceptance rates most SCI and SSCI journals report. Once desk rejections are removed, the acceptance rate among papers that reach peer review is often two to three times higher.
"录用率是多少？"是一个错误的问题，因为公布的录用率描述的是所有投稿者，包括那一半本不该投的。正确的问题是：这篇论文在这本期刊的录用概率是多少？这个数字查不到，但可以估计，而估计结果会告诉您先投哪里、投稿前要修什么、以及何时该停止期待转投他处。本指南给出在点击"提交"之前估计期刊录用概率的实用方法。
是大多数 SCI 和 SSCI 期刊报告的总体录用率区间。去除初审拒稿后，进入同行评审的论文的录用率往往高出两到三倍。
Why the published rate misleads
Two effects distort published acceptance rates. First, they include desk rejections, which are dominated by scope mismatch and incomplete manuscripts. A journal with a 15 per cent overall rate may accept 40 per cent of papers that reach review. Second, they average across paper types: invited reviews, special issue papers and regular submissions have very different odds. Your paper is a regular submission that will either pass the desk or not. So the useful decomposition is:
Fit is mostly about journal choice and the first two pages. Quality is mostly about design, reporting and contribution. You can raise both before submission.
为什么公布的录用率有误导性
两个效应扭曲了公布的录用率。第一，它们包含初审拒稿，而初审拒稿主要由范围不匹配和稿件不完整造成。一本总体录用率 15% 的期刊，对进入评审的论文可能录用 40%。第二，它们对各类论文取平均：约稿综述、特刊论文和常规投稿的胜算差异很大。您的论文是常规投稿，要么通过初审，要么不通过。因此有用的分解是：
契合度主要取决于期刊选择和前两页。质量主要取决于设计、报告和贡献。两者都可以在投稿前提高。
A ten-point scoring method
Score your paper against the target journal on the ten items below, one point each. Be harsh; the point of the exercise is to find the weak items, not to feel good.
- Scope match.At least three papers on a closely related question appeared in this journal in the last two years.
- Method match.The journal has published your method (survey, experiment, qualitative, simulation) recently, in similar samples.
- Contribution stated.The last paragraph of the introduction says explicitly what is new, in a sentence a stranger could repeat.
- Currency.At least a third of references are from the last five years, and the journal itself is cited.
- Design adequacy.Sample size, controls or rigour criteria match what recent papers in the journal report.
- Reporting complete.The relevant reporting guideline or the journal's own checklist is fully met.
- Length and format.Within the word limit and formatted to the author guidelines.
- Language.A colleague outside your group can read the abstract and introduction without stopping.
- Tier realism.The journal's quartile matches the strength of the contribution as your co-authors, not you, judge it.
- Safety.The journal is indexed, not on any warning or negative list your institution uses, and not predatory.
| Score | Rough acceptance probability at this journal | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| 9 to 10 | Better than the journal's published rate; often 40 to 60% among reviewed papers | Submit. Prepare for one round of major revision. |
| 7 to 8 | Around the journal's rate among reviewed papers | Fix the missing items first; they are usually cheap to fix. |
| 5 to 6 | Well below; desk rejection likely | Either fix substantively or choose a better-fitting journal. |
| Under 5 | Very low | Do not submit. Rework the paper or rethink the target. |
The probabilities are working estimates drawn from editorial experience, not measured statistics. Their purpose is to rank your options and identify fixes, not to predict a single outcome. No one can promise acceptance, and we never do.
十项评分法
按下面十项对照目标期刊给论文打分，每项一分。要苛刻；这个练习的目的是找出薄弱项，而不是自我安慰。
- 范围匹配。过去两年内，这本期刊至少发表了三篇关于密切相关问题的论文。
- 方法匹配。该期刊近期发表过您的方法（问卷、实验、质性、仿真），且样本相似。
- 贡献明确。引言最后一段明确说出新意，用一句陌生人也能复述的话。
- 时效性。至少三分之一的参考文献来自近五年，且引用了该期刊本身。
- 设计充分。样本量、对照或严谨性标准与该期刊近期论文报告的水平相当。
- 报告完整。完全满足相关报告规范或期刊自身的检查清单。
- 篇幅与格式。在字数限制内，并按作者指南排版。
- 语言。课题组之外的同事能不停顿地读完摘要和引言。
- 层级现实。期刊分区与贡献强度相符，以合著者而非您本人的判断为准。
- 安全性。期刊已被收录，不在您机构使用的任何预警或负面清单上，也不是掠夺性期刊。
| 得分 | 在这本期刊的大致录用概率 | 该怎么做 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 至 10 | 高于期刊公布的比例；在送审论文中常为 40% 至 60% | 投稿。为一轮大修做好准备。 |
| 7 至 8 | 大约等于期刊送审论文的录用率 | 先补齐缺项；通常修起来成本很低。 |
| 5 至 6 | 明显偏低；很可能初审被拒 | 要么实质性修改，要么换更契合的期刊。 |
| 5 以下 | 非常低 | 不要投。返工论文或重新考虑目标。 |
这些概率是基于编辑经验的工作估计，不是测得的统计数据。其目的是帮您排序选项、找出修正点，而不是预测单一结果。没有人能承诺录用，我们也从不承诺。
The quartile trap
Researchers routinely send a paper that scores 6 at a Q1 journal rather than 9 at a Q2 journal, on the theory that a rejection costs nothing. It costs three to six months, a discouraged co-author team, and sometimes a reviewer who will see the paper again at the next journal. The expected value calculation usually favours the journal where the paper scores highest, unless the difference in quartile matters for a specific requirement. Our posts on when to target Q3 or Q4 versus Q1 or Q2 and how writing for Q1 differs from Q3 give the trade-offs.
Signals from the journal itself
Some journals publish acceptance rates, median review times and desk rejection rates on their information pages. Others can be read from data: the ratio of "received" to "accepted" dates, the number of special issues, and the mix of author countries. Our post on how to find out a journal's acceptance rate shows where to look, and the CAS early warning list guide matters for readers whose institutions apply it.
What to do with a low score
An education researcher who came to us after two desk rejections scored poorly on scope and contribution. Repositioning the paper for a different SSCI Q2 journal produced acceptance in 19 weeks. Read the case study → For help running this assessment on your own manuscript, see our Submission Support service.
分区陷阱
研究者常常把一篇在 Q1 期刊只能得 6 分的论文投给 Q1，而不是投给能得 9 分的 Q2 期刊，理由是被拒也没有损失。损失是三到六个月、一个泄气的合著团队，有时还有一位会在下一本期刊再次看到这篇论文的审稿人。期望值计算通常偏向论文得分最高的期刊，除非分区差异对某项具体要求确实重要。《何时投 Q3/Q4 而非 Q1/Q2》和《为 Q1 写作与为 Q3 写作有何不同》给出了权衡。
来自期刊本身的信号
有些期刊在信息页公布录用率、审稿周期中位数和初审拒稿率。另一些可以从数据中读出：收稿与录用日期的比例、特刊数量、作者国别构成。《如何查找期刊录用率》告诉您在哪里查看，《中科院预警名单指南》对所在机构适用该名单的读者很重要。
得分低怎么办
一位教育研究者在两次初审被拒后找到我们，其范围和贡献两项得分很低。将论文重新定位到另一本 SSCI Q2 期刊后，19 周内被录用。阅读案例 → 如需帮助对您的稿件进行这项评估，请见投稿支持服务。
Two worked examples
A survey-based management paper
A team has a 312-respondent survey testing a mediation model in Chinese manufacturing firms. Against a Q1 SSCI management journal they score 6: scope and method match, but the contribution is incremental for that tier (item 9), the literature stops in 2022 (item 4), common method bias is not addressed (item 5), and the paper is 2,000 words over the limit (item 7). Against a Q2 journal in the same field they score 9, losing only on literature currency. Updating the references takes a week. Submitting to the Q2 journal with a score of 10 is the rational choice, and the paper is likely to reach reviewers.
An engineering method paper
A single author has a new optimisation algorithm benchmarked on standard test problems. Against a top SCI journal in the subfield the score is 7: the algorithm is sound and reported reproducibly, but the benchmark set is smaller than recent papers in that journal use (item 5) and the contribution over the nearest competitor is not stated numerically (item 3). Both are fixable in a month: extend the benchmark, state the improvement as a percentage in the abstract and introduction. Then the score is 9 and the top journal becomes a reasonable first target.
What changes the odds most, per hour spent
- Choosing a scope-matched journal.One afternoon with recent issues can move the probability more than a month of rewriting. It fixes items 1, 2 and 9 together.
- Writing the contribution paragraph.Two hours. Fixes item 3 and often improves the abstract.
- Updating references.One week. Fixes item 4 and often reveals a competitor paper you must cite.
- Completing the reporting checklist.Two days. Fixes item 6 and pre-empts the most common major revision request.
- A structural edit before a language edit.One to two weeks. Fixes item 8 in the way reviewers care about.
Everything on this list is under your control before submission. Nothing on it requires new data. That is the point of scoring: it turns an anxious guess into a short list of tasks. For the tasks themselves, the SCI and SSCI writing roadmap sets out the order.
两个实例
一篇基于问卷的管理学论文
一个团队有 312 名受访者的问卷，检验中国制造企业中的一个中介模型。对照一本 SSCI Q1 管理学期刊得 6 分：范围和方法匹配，但贡献对该层级而言属增量（第 9 项），文献止于 2022 年（第 4 项），未处理共同方法偏差（第 5 项），且超出字数限制 2,000 词（第 7 项）。对照同领域一本 Q2 期刊得 9 分，只在文献时效性上丢分。更新参考文献需要一周。以 10 分投给 Q2 期刊是理性选择，论文很可能送到审稿人手中。
一篇工程方法论文
一位独立作者有一个在标准测试问题上做过基准测试的新优化算法。对照该子领域的顶级 SCI 期刊得 7 分：算法可靠、报告可重复，但基准集比该期刊近期论文所用的小（第 5 项），且相对最接近的竞争方法的改进没有用数字陈述（第 3 项）。两者一个月内都能修正：扩展基准集，在摘要和引言中以百分比陈述改进。之后得 9 分，顶级期刊就成为合理的首选目标。
每小时投入中，什么最能改变胜算
- 选择范围匹配的期刊。一个下午阅读近期文章，对概率的改变可能超过一个月的改写。它同时修正第 1、2、9 项。
- 撰写贡献段落。两小时。修正第 3 项，且常常改善摘要。
- 更新参考文献。一周。修正第 4 项，且常常发现一篇必须引用的竞争论文。
- 完成报告规范清单。两天。修正第 6 项，并预先化解最常见的大修要求。
- 先做结构编辑再做语言润色。一到两周。以审稿人在意的方式修正第 8 项。
这份清单上的一切都在投稿前由您掌控。没有一项需要新数据。这就是评分的意义：它把焦虑的猜测变成一份简短的任务清单。至于任务本身，《SCI 与 SSCI 写作路线图》给出了顺序。
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